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The hostage kidnapping in the Algerian In Amenas gas field - A first evaluation
The goals of the operation
According
to most of the media outlets the Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
brigade, led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar, is responsible for the hostage
taking in the Algerian BP
oil facilities in In Amenas. According to the spokesman of Belmokhtar’s
brigade quoted by Sahara Media, the kidnapping of the foreigners is in
revenge for Algeria’s consent to French use of its airspace for flights
headed to Mali.
In
the opinion of this author the kidnapping has only indirect connection
with the French intervention in Mali, and it was planned many weeks or
even months before the
incident happened.
Rather
the attack is connected with the in fight between the various factions
of the al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) on the background of the
latest developments
related to this organization.
It
should be recorded that Mokhtar Belmokhtar has been a long time member
of AQIM, as head of the southern Sahara unit or katiba, later named the
Katibat Moulathamine,
or the Masked Brigade.
During
the last 4-5 years he has become more of a local warlord acting in this
huge deserted Sahel region, on the borders of Mauritania and northern
Mali, engaging in
narcotics and cigarette smuggling and the lucrative industry of
kidnappings of foreign tourists and workers.
He
was in conflict with the present emir of AQIM, Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud
(aka. Abelmalek Droukdel), who refused to nominate him as emir.
It was reported that Belmokhtar split from AQIM, or was expelled from the organizations, in the last months of 2012.
In
spite of AQIM’s and its allies advances in northern Mali since the
military coup there in March 2012, the Algerian military forces have
been successful in killing and
arresting on its territory some 200 militants and leaders since August
2012.
An
operation on August 15, 2012 led to the arrest of the chairman of
AQIM's judicial committee, Nacib Tayeb (aka Abderrahmane Abou Ishak
Essoufi) as he was headed to a
leadership meeting. In October, Algerian forces killed Bekkai Boualem
(aka Khaled El Mig), the head of external relations for al-Qaeda.
On
December 16, Salah Gasmi, AQIM’s number two boss and main spokesman was
captured near Bouira. He was responsible for the group's propaganda
and the co-ordination of
the various small groups operating in Kabylie and the suspected
mastermind of the 2007 suicide bombings in Algiers. His arrest weakens
Droukdel’s leadership.1
Finally,
on January 5, 2013 Algerian security forces killed nine terrorists in
Keddara, Boumerdes. One of them was identified as Izza Rezki (aka Abou
Djaffar) responsible
for the finances of the organization.2
It
is therefore possible that the main goal of Mokhtar Belmokhtar in this
major terrorist operation was to enhance his position in the fight for
the leadership of AQIM,
and if successful it could have bring him also an important ransom from
some of the governments or companies which had citizens among the
foreign hostages, to finance his group’s future activities.3
The botched military operation for the freeing of the hostages
It is still early to evaluate the final results of the military operation to free the hostages in the gas facilities.
From
the point of view of the Algerian authorities, the most important issue
at stake was to hamper any attempt by the terrorists to blow up this
important gas field,
as gas and oil exports are the main source of revenue for the
government. This could explain the decision to act so quickly without
perhaps all the necessary intelligence for a successful operation.
The
Algerians wanted also to prevent political pressure from foreign
governments worried for the fate of their citizens, like Japan and
Norway.
Another
reason was to show the Algerian people the determination of the
government to fight the Islamist terrorists at any price and not show
any sign of political weakness
after it succeeded “to win” the May 2012 legislative election and
contrary to all other Arab regimes to stop the advance of the Islamist
wave.
The
Algerian military and security services have led a long deadly cruel
war against the Islamists since 1992, which has cost the lives of
100-150.000 Algerians.
The
death of dozens of hostages, even if it could involve serious
diplomatic repercussions, is less important than the stability the
Algerian regime whose main goal is
survival.
The
Algerian military operation, in a huge gas complex were more than 600
people were working, many of them taken hostages, brings to mind the
Russian modus operandi against
the Chechens barricaded with hundreds of hostages in the Moscow
Dubrovka Theater (October 2002) or the Beslan school hostage crisis
(September 2004).
1. “Algeria arrests AQIM 'number two',”
Magharebia, December 18, 2012, at http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2012/12/18/feature-03.
2. “Algeria: Aqim Financier Killed in Algeria,”
AllAfrica, January 6, 2013 at http://allafrica.com/stories/201301070275.html).
3.
It was reported that Belmokhtar secured a €5 million ransom payment in
negotiations for the release of Canadian hostages in 2009.
Ely Karmon, Ph.D.
Senior Research Scholar
International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and
The Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at
The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC)
Herzlyia, Israel
Tel.: 972-9-9527277
Cell.: 972-52-2653306
Fax.: 972-9-9513073, 972-9-7716653
E-mail: ekarmon@idc.ac.il
Web: http://www.ict.org.il/
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