Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Are America's Best Days Behind Us?

I am an American, not by accident of birth but by choice. I voted with my feet and became an American because I love this country and think it is exceptional. But when I look at the world today and the strong winds of technological change and global competition, it makes me nervous. Perhaps most unsettling is the fact that while these forces gather strength, Americans seem unable to grasp the magnitude of the challenges that face us. Despite the hyped talk of China's rise, most Americans operate on the assumption that the U.S. is still No. 1.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2056610,00.html#ixzz1I2MlPSvN

This is a powerful essay in the March 14th issue of TIME. But like all TIME essays, it's short and sweet. How accurate are its assertions? I'd like to find out... maybe you would too.

Here goes (I'll continue this over the next few days):

"The following rankings come from various lists, but they all tell the same story. According tot he Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), our 15-year olds rank 17th in the world in science and 25th in math."

Here's some of the OECD material:

Finland takes number one spot in OECD's latest PISA survey, advance figures show
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29/11/2007 - Finland once again takes the number one spot in OECD's three-yearly PISA test of the abilities of a sample of 15-year old secondary-school students, followed by Hong Kong (China) and Canada in second and third place, according to advance details of results that will be published in full next week.
The PISA survey, based on tests carried out in 2006 in 57 countries that together account for nearly 90% of world GDP, is the most comprehensive and rigorous international yardstick of secondary-school students' attainments. After focusing in 2000 on reading skills and in 2003 on mathematics, PISA 2006 tested students on how much they knew about science and their ability to use scientific knowledge and understanding to identify and address questions and resolve problems in daily life.
Comparisons between the results of the 2006 tests and those of previous years are not strictly valid, as the nature of the tests varied.Full PISA results will be published on Tuesday 4 December 2007; advance details are being made available following the publication by a Spanish magazine of partial leaked figures.
Commenting on the PISA survey, OECD Secretary-General Angel GurrĂ­a noted that it is a tool to assist governments in their policy choices on education. "In today's competitive global economy, quality education is one of the most valuable assets that a society and an individual can have," he said.
In that context, he added, "PISA is much more than just a ranking. It is about how well individual education systems are equipping their young people for the world of tomorrow. First and foremost, it tells countries where their strengths and weaknesses lie."
For advance details of individual countries' performance in the PISA 2006 survey, see the table below. Full details and analysis will be published by OECD at 10.00 a.m. Paris time on Tuesday 4 December 2007.
See table "Range of rank on the PISA 2006 science scale".
Note to Editors:
PISA is a three-yearly survey of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds in OECD member countries and partner countries and economies. The product of collaboration between participating countries through the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), it draws on leading international expertise to develop valid comparisons across countries and cultures.
In 2006, PISA assessed the competencies of 15-year-old students in 57 countries with an extensive two-hour test. More than 400,000 students from 57 countries making up close to 90% of the world economy took part. The focus was on science but the assessment also included reading and mathematics and collected data on student, family and institutional factors that can help to explain differences in performance.
The table summarises the performance of 15-year-olds in science. It shows three main pieces of information:
The average score of the country on the science assessment. Across the 30 OECD countries the scores are statistically standardised to have an average of 500 points. The scores are also standardised so that approximately two-thirds of the students score between 400 and 600 - that is the standard deviation is 100. The colour coding in the list of the countries in the first column gives an indication of whether the country's score is statistically significantly above, below or not different from the OECD average.
The rank of the country compared to other OECD countries. When a sample of students represents all students in a country, it is not always possible to state with 100% accuracy what the exact rank of the country is compared with other countries. For this reason, OECD calculates, with 95% confidence, a range of ranks that the country falls within. For example, in the list above, OECD is 95% confident that New Zealand ranks between 2nd and 5th of all the OECD countries.
The rank of the country compared to all the countries which participated in PISA 2006. The same 95% level of confidence is applied when comparing a country's position to all the other countries. For example, the list above shows, with 95% confidence, that Croatia ranks between 23rd and 30th position of all the countries which participated in PISA 2006.
In addition to ranking the countries according to students' science performance, OECD carries out extensive analysis to explore the reasons for differences between countries, between schools and between students. This analysis will be publicly released on 4 December.

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Learning outcomes
Mean performance of United States’ 15-year-olds in the middle of the rankings
On the 2009 PISA assessment of 15-year-olds, the United States performs around the average in reading (rank 141)
and science (rank 172) and below the average in mathematics (rank 253) among the 34 OECD countries (Table 2.1).
Figures 2.16, 2.17 and 2.18 at the end of this chapter show the relative standing of the United States compared to
the benchmark countries examined in the subsequent chapters and other OECD countries.

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Relative shares of top-performing students
At the other end of the performance scale, students in the United States do comparatively well at the very highest
levels of reading proficiency (Levels 5 and 6), have an average share of top performers in science, but a belowaverage
share of top performers in mathematics (Figures I.2.14, I.3.9 and I.3.20 in PISA 2009 Results Volume I ).
Students proficient at Level 6 on the PISA reading scale are capable of conducting fine-grained analysis of texts, which
requires detailed comprehension of both explicit information and unstated implications; and capable of reflecting
on and evaluating what they read at a more general level. They can overcome preconceptions in the face of new
information, even when that information is contrary to expectations. They are capable of recognising what is provided
in a text, both conspicuously and more subtly, while at the same time being able to apply a critical perspective to it,
drawing on sophisticated understandings from beyond the text. This combination of a capacity to absorb the new and
to evaluate it is greatly valued in knowledge economies, which depend on innovation and nuanced decision-making
that draw on all the available evidence. At 1.5%, the United States has a significantly higher share of the highestperforming
readers than the average (0.8%). However, in Australia, Canada, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore
or Shanghai-China, the corresponding percentages are even higher, ranging from 1.8 to 2.9%.
At the next highest level, Level 5 on the PISA reading literacy scale, students can still handle texts that are unfamiliar
in either form or content. They can find information in such texts, demonstrate detailed understanding, and infer
which information is relevant to the task. Using such texts, they are also able to evaluate critically and build
hypotheses, draw on specialised knowledge and accommodate concepts that may be contrary to expectations.
The United States has, at 10%, an above-average share of students who perform at Level 5 or above (average 8%).
However, in Shanghai-China (19.5%), New Zealand and Singapore (15.7%), Finland (14.5%) and Japan (13.4%) the
corresponding percentages are higher.
Only 2% of students in the United States reach the highest level of performance in mathematics, compared with an OECD
average of 3%, and figures ranging up to 27% in Shanghai-China (Table I.3.1 in PISA 2009 Results Volume I ). Students
proficient at Level 6 on the mathematics scale are capable of advanced mathematical thinking and reasoning. These
students can apply insight and understanding, along with a mastery of symbolic and formal mathematical operations
and relationships, to develop new approaches and strategies for addressing novel situations. They can formulate and
accurately communicate their actions and reflections regarding their findings, interpretations, arguments and the
appropriateness of these to the given situations. At the next highest level, Level 5 on the PISA mathematics scale, students
can still develop and work with models in complex situations, identifying constraints and specifying assumptions.

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More: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/35/15/46579895.pdf

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