As
the US repositions its core foreign and economic policy to the
Pacific theater, China has stepped in to fill the gap on the
Middle
Eastern stage with an offer to host a summit between the Israelis and
Palestinians. True,
Beijing would prefer to stay out of the conflict,
but it has strong reasons to take a mediation role in a region
increasingly vital to its national interests.
-
Francesco Sisci
(May 8, '13)
BEIJING
- China has decided to enter the realm of Middle East politics,
offering to host for the first time in Beijing a summit between Israelis
and Palestinians and attempting to confront vexing questions at the
heart of the many conflicts in the region.
The summit initiative
is not intended to undermine peace attempts by the United States, which
after the Cold War became the world's only superpower. It is exactly
the opposite: China's policy arises from America's diminishing interest
in the region and the reorientation of its foreign and economic policy
away from the Mediterranean and into the Pacific, with the now-famous "pivot to Asia".
The
deep reason for this is almost trivial. New technologies to exploit
shale gas are reducing American dependence on energy imports from the
Middle East and promise by the end of the decade to turn America into a
net exporter of energy.In that case, the Middle East becomes a
general geostrategic problem. Though the issues are still tied to the
special relationship of the US and Israel, it stops being a matter that
affects strategic supplies that give life to the American economy.At
the same time, China has already become the largest importer of energy
from the Middle East, and this dependence will grow in the coming years
as its economy develops.China, while rich in shale gas, is far
behind in developing extraction technology and finding concrete areas to
be exploited. It should be conceivable that China will become
independent of imported oil in some years with the proper technology,
but in fact the opposite is happening.China's dependence on oil
imported from overseas will grow in the coming years and will move
through sea-lanes guaranteed and controlled by the US Navy.All
this compels China today to take an interest in an area from where it
would rather stay away, and that it has carefully avoided for many
years.Chinese interests are actually two-fold. In principle,
Beijing wants to maintain good relations with all countries of the
region and with the Arab nations in particular. With Turkey, there are
longstanding problems in getting the support of Ankara due to the fight
for independence of the Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of western China.
Relations with Iran were once warm, but are cooling. This is due to
American pressure and is also meant to improve relations with Saudi
Arabia, Iran's regional rival. Finally, any moves related to Tehran
bring in Israel.China's growing ties with Israel are the most
significant development in the region. For example, Israeli Prime
Minister Bibi Netanyahu, who began his five-day visit to on May 6, will
sign an agreement for a joint Sino-Israeli green technology investment
fund to be used in China for energy saving.Moreover, Israel
would like to build a train line from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean
Sea that could bypass the Suez Strait, endangered by the Egypt
instability, and would like the Chinese Railway industry to build it.
This is a very substantial commitment compared to the substance of talks
between Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who met Chinese
president Xi Jinping on May 6 and left China the following day.When
Netanyahu meets Xi on May 9, part of the conversation will likely be
taken up by a four-point peace plan the Chinese president proposed to
Abbas, according to the Jerusalem Post. The proposal calls for the
establishment of an independent Palestinian state and peaceful
coexistence with Israel, Chinese news agency Xinhua reported.Palestinian
billionaire and philanthropist Munib Masri began working on the idea of
a summit over a year ago, when he was in Beijing for a series of
private meetings. The theory of the Palestinians, especially those like
Masri, in seeking Chinese involvement is that Beijing brings a fresh
approach that could give unexpected results.The Chinese
themselves are very uncertain and often unprepared to accept a new role
as mediator. But the opportunity does not allow hesitation.Certainly,
being realistic Beijing is not expecting to achieve peace in Jerusalem,
but at least would like more knowledge and relationships in an area
that is increasingly important for its national interests - while also
being one of rapid disintegration.Libya was pulverized in the
struggles between tribal factions. Syria is a cancer spreading outward.
Iraq is far from being a normal country, while the biggest tinderbox in
the region, Egypt, wobbles on the brink of the abyss. This directly
threatens the entire area, and the delicate sources of Chinese oil
imports.The risk, which is very clear in Beijing, is to be
caught in this web of unresolved and perhaps unsolvable problems. On
this, a significant dialogue is developing in China. If everything is
falling apart in the Middle East, China needs to focus on Israel, the
region's anchor of stability, which has no oil to sell, but rather has
the technologies to help China reduce its dependence on oil.This
situation also brings China closer to Europe, itself dependent on
Middle Eastern oil imports and threatened by instability that can create
new waves of immigrants to the northern shore of the Mediterranean.China
and European countries have a common interest in the region, and this
is the first real geopolitical point of contact between China and
Europe. In the past ties were just based trade and economic interests,
but politically there was no concrete common factor.China is
extremely cautious and Europe is politically very fragmented. These two
elements are powerful brakes on the forces that potentially draw the
agendas of Europe and China together. But the momentum could become
unstoppable with time as instability in the Middle East is growing and
nobody is really clear about what to do about it.
Francesco Sisci is a columnist for the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore. His e-mail is fsisci@gmail.com
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