| October 22, 2012 - Women Put Obama Up 5 Points In Ohio, Quinnipiac University/CBS News Poll Finds Democrat Sherrod Brown Up 9 Points In Senate Race | |||||
Riding a wave of strong support among women, President Barack Obama holds a 50 - 45 percent lead over Republican Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll released today, half the 53 - 43 percent margin he held when Quinnipiac/CBS News/the New York Times surveyed Buckeye likely voters September 26. | |||||
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This latest Quinnipiac/CBS survey shows a wide gender gap as President Obama leads
55 - 40 percent among women while Gov. Romney leads 51 - 44 percent among men. Whites
back the Republican 51 - 44 percent while blacks go Democratic 91 - 5 percent. Voters with
college degrees are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Voters
without degrees back Obama 52 - 43 percent.
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Support shifts dramatically with income as voters making less than $30,000 per year go
Democratic 60 - 34 percent while voters making more than $100,000 go Republican 53 - 45
percent.
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Independent voters back Romney 49 - 42 percent.
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"The good news for Gov. Romney is that he has sliced President Obama's lead in Ohio in
half in the last month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University
Polling Institute. "The bad news for Romney, and the good news for Obama, is that no
Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio and the challenger is running
out of time to make up the remaining difference."
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In Ohio's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a 51 - 42
percent lead over State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger.
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In both the presidential and U.S. Senate races, the roughly 20 percent of those who have
already cast their ballots said they backed the Democratic candidates by a larger margin than the
overall survey respondents. Among early voters, Obama leads 54 - 39 percent, while Sen.
Brown leads Mandel 57 - 36 percent.
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"President Obama won 46 percent of the white vote in Ohio in 2008 when he carried the
state by five points. Romney probably needs to hold Mr. Obama to less than 40 percent of the
white vote if he is to win Ohio, and he has a ways to go at this point," said Brown.
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One key reason for Obama's lead in Ohio could be that Buckeye voters are more
optimistic about the economy than most of their counterparts around the country. The state's
unemployment rate is below the national average and voters there are aware of their enviable
situation. By 37 - 36 percent they split on whether the national economy is getting better or
worse, but by 46 - 22 percent they believe the state's economy is improving.
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"It's more difficult for Romney to come into Ohio and say the economy is doing poorly
and it's Obama's fault when voters there think things are getting better by more than two-to-
one," said Brown. "When things are going well, voters tend to support incumbents just as they
punish them in bad times, as is happening in much of the country which is struggling
economically."
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Romney and Obama tie 48 - 48 percent when voters are asked who can best handle the
economy. Romney is better on who can best can handle the budget deficit, while Obama is
better able to deal with other major problems facing the country. Romney is seen as a strong
leader 64 - 32 percent, compared to 58 - 40 percent for Obama. But voters say 60 - 37 percent
that Obama cares about their needs and problems, compared to 50 - 45 percent who say Romney
doesn't care.
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By sizable 48 - 27 percent margin, voters say President Obama won last week's second
debate between the two candidates and 85 percent say they plan to watch or listen to tonight's
third and final debate, which they expect Obama to win 40 - 31 percent.
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"The good news for Romney is that just as before the final debate, voters expect Obama
to win the rubber match, and the candidate with the lower voter opinion so far has won the two
previous debates," said Brown.
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Source: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1810 | |||||
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