Monday, March 19, 2012

Professor Ely Karmon on the Middle East, Turkey and the Kurdish Issue

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The Middle East, Turkey and the Kurdish issue

In my article “A devil’s advocate view of ‘new’ Mideast” in The Jerusalem Post of June 22, 2011
(see at http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=226051), I evaluated that the popular uprisings in the Arab world and the possible UN recognition of a Palestinian state could impact on the Kurds in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq to ask for self-determination.

I also mentioned that the elections in Turkey stressed the Kurdish issue as the most fundamental problem for that country, as they proved the Kurdish people’s determination to solve it based on democratic autonomy.

On this issues see below Prof Ofra Bangio’s analysis of the question if Kurds, and most conspicuously Iraqi Kurds, will be able to enhance their national cause for self-determination (sorry for duplicates).

In Turkey itself, the violent uprising in Syria and the significant support given by the AKP government to the Syrian opposition, with the possibility of a military intervention in Syria, have raised the fear of a Kurdish nationalist backlash.

According to reliable Turkish sources, “Turkey does not arm and train the Syrian opposition, at least at the moment, out of a fear that another neighbor, Iran, as well as Syria may use such a Turkish policy to provoke its terrorist organization to further escalate violence in Turkish territory” (Today’s Zaman, 5.3.2012).

However, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu issued a warning to Damascus that Turkey would seek authorization from Parliament to send Turkish troops over the border if it is deemed necessary to prevent the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) forces acting in the southern regions of Gaziantep and Kahramanmaras from crossing into Turkish territory (Azerbaijan Trend News Agency, 10.3.2012).

Lately Turkish Premier, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the head of Turkey's intelligence service (MIT) Hakan Fidan, held talks with CIA Director David Petraeus focused on the Syrian crisis and the fight against Kurdish PKK terrorism. The newspaperYeni Safak claimed that “the meetings may have been set up to prepare an international intervention in Syria” but also focused on sectarian tensions in Iraq, where the PKK has bases in the north, and the measures that must be taken to stop possible attacks by the PKK this spring (ANSA New Agency, 14.3.2012).

On March 18, Turkish police used water cannon, tear gas and baton charges to break up Kurdish demonstrations across the country and Haci Zengin, the head of an Istanbul branch office of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), died in the protests, a sign of rising tension ahead of the Kurdish New Year that begins on March 21. The legal BDP and the PKK have both called for large demonstrations for Newroz, the Kurdish New Year that begins on March 21, sensing the government, which has strongly backed Arab uprisings, may be vulnerable to pressure from street protests. The biggest protest took place in Diyarbakir, the main city in the southeast. Tens of thousands of people gathered to march to an area just outside the city to celebrate Newroz, waving Kurdish flags and holding up portraits of Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed PKK leader (Swissinfo.ch, 18.3.2012).

Erdogan, who was due to receive the Steiger tolerance Award in the town of Bochum on March 17, cancelled his trip to Germany, allegedly because the death of 12 Turkish soldiers in Afghanistan. But an estimated 22,000 Kurds and Alevis protesters went ahead with a rally against the decision to give him the award (Reuters, 17.3.2012).

Ironically, PM Erdogan seems more “successful” in resolving the internal Palestinian crisis. He met Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, who paid a surprise visit to Ankara, “for talks on Palestinian reconciliation, the Middle East and the situation in Syria.”  Mashaal lauded Turkey for extending great support to Palestinian internal reconciliation. In January 2012, Turkish officials dismissed claims that Turkey will host a Hamas office after it left Damascus. Turkey was also reported as preparing “to replace Hamas’ chief financier, Iran, to alleviate the Gazan ruling party’s financial straits” (Today’s Zaman, 16.3.2012).

Mashaal’s visit followed a new wave of violence between Israel and Palestinian terrorist groups which ended in a shaky truce brokered by Egypt. As usual, Erdogan accused Israel of  “a slow but steady slaughter carried out against the Palestinian people in Gaza,” but forgot to mention that of the 24 killed Palestinians, 21 were  Gaza terrorists firing more than 200 rockets and mortar shells at southern Israel over the course of four days.

Ely Karmon, Ph.D.
Senior Research Scholar
The Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at
The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC)
Herzlyia, Israel
Tel.:   972-9-9527277
Cell.: 972-52-2653306
Fax.: 972-9-9513073, 972-9-7716653
E-mail: ekarmon@idc.ac.il


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