What's up in Egypt?

This from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies:

EGYPTOLOGY: FDD’s Khairi Abaza writes:

Egypt is the epicenter of the Arab world — not only demographically (one out of every four Arabs lives along the Nile), but also intellectually and politically. The emergence of liberal democracy in Egypt would send shock waves throughout the Arab world in the same way the fall of the Berlin Wall inspired East Europeans to stand against communist dictatorships.

More here.

FDD’s Jonathan Schanzer observes:

Egypt’s military may be our best bet, but the move is not without significant risk. If the U.S. cuts aid and Mubarak finds a way to hang on, we can count on the Russians, the Chinese, or others to fill the void. Indeed, the move could effectively sever U.S. ties with a long-time ally, and destroy our significant political, military and financial capital there.

Washington’s best way forward is not to prompt a dramatic international showdown, but to convey its wishes to the Egyptian military in private. The Egyptian officer corps, which the U.S. has trained over the years, understands American concerns. Obama must prompt them to navigate this mess and find a solution in short order.

As the U.S. government tries to dig out of this mess, it’s natural to wonder whether this was an intelligence failure. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein apparently thinks so. But, if Egyptian intelligence had no clue that this political tsunami was on its way, how was U.S. intelligence to know?

This is more a failure to plan than to predict. …

Capitol Hill might also look into why we cut aid to many Egyptian democracy programs in recent years. Had we given the Egyptian people a sense that change would come gradually, the anger that has exploded onto the streets of Cairo in recent days might have been more easily contained.

More here.

FDD’s Reuel Marc Gerecht suggests:

We should not assume that devout Muslims will be less subject to faction than their secular brethren. It’s possible that the Muslim Brotherhood could pull off a military coup, but it seems unlikely. Their paramilitary forces are pathetic compared with the Egyptian Army, which has so far not shown itself, even in the lower ranks, to be blindly enamored of the Brotherhood. The organization would likely confront an enormous social, and quite possibly a military, backlash if it attempted to abort free elections once they got going. …

If Washington and Jerusalem are dreading an empowered Muslim Brotherhood, a vicious clampdown on the democratic rebellion will surely make the next irruption much more radical and violent.

A democratizing Egypt could change the face of the Middle East. Political evolution could start. No doubt the American and Israeli embrace of Mubarak’s detested dictatorship will carry a price, perhaps a stiff price, in a democratic Egypt. It is the cost of our having sought to build stability on an authoritarian illusion. …

President Obama has only one trump to play—the American subventions to the Egyptian armed forces. …[H]e would be saying unequivocally that U.S.-Egyptian relations henceforth are based on democratic values. “Realists” may object. But the realists have been egregiously wrong for decades.

More here.

In my most recent column, I argue:

Even if the transition to a more democratic era can be successfully managed, enormous challenges lay ahead. More than a third of Egyptians live in dire poverty. Egypt needs an economy that creates millions of new jobs. That will require Western investment, which will not arrive if Egypt becomes radicalized or infested by terrorists or hostile to infidels.

And Egypt needs peace. Over and over, we hear that Mubarak has “served U.S. interests by maintaining peace with Israel.” Does anyone imagine that it would be in the interest of the average Egyptian to fight another war against Israel? Does anyone imagine that the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies care?