I viewed a disturbing video yesterday in which the speaker claimed that (1) the US dollar would soon cease to be the world's reserve currency, and (2) when that happened our fate here in the US will be hyperinflation and economic collapse. Let me be the first to admit that, while the US national debt seems staggering to me and the states' budget shortfalls appear insurmountable, I don't know what this portends. But if what this guy claims is even half true, it would make 9/11 seem like a fender-bender in comparison. I have begun trying to educate myself on this. Views on the Internet, as usual, seem to span the entire spectrum:
Chinese leader Hu Jintao visits the U.S. this week. Getting past the public pleasantries, our leaders will have much to say behind closed doors. On economic issues, the focus will be on monetary policy, particularly the role of the U.S. dollar, the RMB/$ exchange rate, and the recent jump in China’s inflation.
On the issue of the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, we think the critical comments out of China – as well as other comments from France, Russia, and the Middle East – are just bluster.
Countries that do not have a gold standard – which, at this point in history, includes all of them – must still back their currencies with something. These “reserves” create confidence. The Federal Reserve typically uses U.S. Treasury securities as reserves, although it also holds many mortgage-backed securities these days. The Fed makes a profit on these holdings and turns them over to the government. The European Central Bank also holds the sovereign debt of its member countries and turns their earnings over to member governments.
Emerging market central banks have a choice of what to hold as reserves, and they will always make the one that maximizes earnings and creates the most confidence in their currencies. That’s why China links its currency to the dollar and holds mostly U.S. Treasury debt as reserves.
--- http://seekingalpha.com/article/247120-china-and-the-u-s-dollars-role-as-the-worlds-reserve-currency
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. dollar will still be the world's dominant currency for at least the next decade, said three former top officials at the Federal Reserve, including former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn.
In separate interviews, Kohn and former Fed Governors Laurence Meyer and Randall Kroszner stressed that forecasting currency rates is often akin to reading entrails. But they still offered some well-educated guesses of what could happen in foreign exchange markets in 2011.
1. The euro-dollar exchange rate will end up around the current $1.35 level at the end of the year.
2. The Chinese yuan could appreciate at a stronger pace against the dollar in 2011 compared to previous years amid government efforts to keep inflation under control, but investors must be aware that this is a risky bet.
3. There will be no U.S. sovereign debt rating cut this year, even though the country's fiscal woes could weigh on the dollar slightly.
4. The U.S. dollar is likely to continue getting a boost from the protests in Egypt as investors flock to its perceived safety, but the longer-run consequences from unrest in the Middle East are harder to predict -- and could be dire.
"The dollar will continue to be a reserve currency for decades to come," said Kohn, who retired in September 2010 after 40 years at the U.S. central bank. Meyer, 66 and a member of the Fed's Board of Governors from 1996 to 2002, is certain the dollar will still be the dominant currency in his "lifetime" because there are no valid alternatives.
Kroszner, a University of Chicago professor who was a member of the Fed board from 2006 to 2009, was the only one of the three to underline the potential challenge to the U.S. from China within the next 10 years, but noted it will be hard for China to win investors' confidence by liberalizing capital markets and improving the rule of law.
--- http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110131-716661.html
(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's role as a reserve currency will diminish in the coming years as Asian economies like China grow and countries seek to diversify their monetary holdings, policymakers said on Friday.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy of quantitative easing -- essentially printing money -- and a call by France to look at ways to wean the world off the dollar as the sole reserve money have put the U.S. currency in the spotlight.
"I'm more optimistic about the euro gaining strength as a potential reserve currency," Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said during a panel discussion at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
"We ourselves are diversifying into currencies which we would never have put in the reserves before, including the Australian dollar and so forth," he added. "I think people will diversify their reserves."
---http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/uk-davos-dollar-idUKTRE70U3X820110131
I would welcome insights from readers of this blog.
Meanwhile, I'm going to being doing some serious reading on this issue, probably including some of the following:
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