New Homeland-Security Journal tutorial on risk management

The Center for Homeland Defense and Security is pleased to announce the publication of Ted Lewis' Risk Methods and Models at www.hsaj.org:   This multi-media tutorial presents a brief history of probability, chance, and risk — especially how it is used in assessing risk in the homeland security enterprise — and surveys the various models and methods. These include a priori, a posteriori, and conditional probability, expected utility theory using PRA (probabilistic risk analysis), long-tailed exceedence, and Bayesian models; and network risk in complex systems. The tutorial introduces modern methods as they apply to networked systems such as power grids, the Internet, and other critical infrastructures. Participants will be able to assess risk methods, understand limitations and applicability of those methods, and implement programs in risk assessment. The Editors of Homeland Security Affairs