Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Israel's Syrian Dilemma

English: CIA map of the Golan Height showing I...
English: CIA map of the Golan Height showing Israeli settlements and Syrian villages as of 1989 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Dear friends and colleagues.

See below Ehud Yaari's article "Tough Dilemma [for Israel] in Southern Syria."
Sorry for duplicates.

I fully agree with Yaari's analysis and recommendations.

In my recent media appearances I mentioned the fact that Israeli officials highlight the threat of ISIS (and compare Hamas with it!) while almost ignoring the presence of Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) on the Golan border.

It is true, like mentioned Yaari, that JN has avoided to engage in terrorist operations against Israel. However, in several cases their fighters have penetrated on Israeli territory between the military fence and the international ceasefire border thus provoking Syrian army fire against them and endangering in some cases Israeli citizens and journalists. It seems their intention is to provoke Israeli army to attack the regime forces in the region and thus weakening them.

Moreover, as the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, JN is considering Israel strategically as the next target of the organization after the fall of the Assad regime, while ISIS is more interested in consolidating its grip on the Sunni provinces in Iraq and north-eastern Syria, building the "caliphate" and fighting the Shiites.

Symbolically, JN's Amir name is Mohammed al-Jawlani (or al-Golani), which implies that he is from the Golan Heights (al-Jawlan, in Arabic).

It should also be taken in consideration that the continuing instability in the region bordering the Golan could be used by Hezbollah to act against Israel from there, directly or using local proxies.

Ely Karmon, PhD
Senior Research Scholar
International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and
The Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS) at
The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC(
Herzlyia, Israel
Tel.:   972-9-9527277
Cell.: 972-52-2653306
Fax.: 972-9-9513073, 972-9-7716653
E-mail: ekarmon@idc.ac.ilekarmon@idc.ac.il
Web: http://www.ict.org.il/
Oh, and then there's Sweden's extension of recognition to the Palestinian State.

No comments:

Post a Comment